A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
